Madagascar’s national disaster management agency is still preparing its action plan as the island braces for what specialists describe as an exceptionally strong El Niño episode, one that could reshape the entire delivery of the upcoming rainy season. Contacted by RFI, the Bureau national de gestion des risques et des catastrophes (BNGRC) confirmed that its plan of action remains in preparation, even as the operational timeline tightens. In July, the agency’s director general, General Gabriel Ramanantsoa, said the institution was already carrying out the inventory and verification of its equipment ahead of the cyclone season.
The scale of the challenge is considerable. According to the American oceanic and atmospheric observation agency (NOAA), the current El Niño episode has close to a 70 percent chance of becoming the most intense since records began in 1950. The World Meteorological Organization expects a peak in intensity at the end of 2026, with the phenomenon persisting until February 2027. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) places Madagascar among the 22 countries most affected.
For the Grande Île, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha) describes an exceptionally strong El Niño episode and anticipates a very late start to the rainy season, normally expected between October and December. The agency also warns of a historically significant rainfall deficit in the South and West, extremely high temperatures across the whole territory until the summer of 2027, heatwaves and major fire risks. The Malagasy Ministry of the Environment has already raised the alarm over the danger of fires in protected areas and the forests of the South and West. Further background on the phenomenon and its regional implications can be found at https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20261006-madagascar-se-pr%C3%A9pare-%C3%A0-traverser-un-%C3%A9pisode-d-el-ni%C3%B1o-particuli%C3%A8rement-fort.
On the operational side, the national meteorological service, Météo Madagascar, has laid out its forecast for the hot and humid season in two distinct phases. From October 2026 to January 2027, precipitation is expected to fall below normal across much of the island. The regions of Melaky, Menabe, the South-West, Anosy and Androy would face significant drought in January, and a new temperature record cannot be ruled out. From February onward, the trend would reverse, with normal to above-normal rains until April, bringing risks of floods, inundations and landslides. In practical terms, the country’s services must be ready for two very different emergencies within a single season: first water scarcity, then excess water.
Humanitarian operators have begun to act. In the South, 75,000 people are targeted by anticipatory measures ahead of a possible deterioration of conditions. These early actions are intended to get ahead of the drought phase, before needs outpace what responders on the ground can deliver.
The gap between planning and execution remains the central question. The BNGRC’s action plan is not yet finalized, even though the meteorological calendar leaves little margin: the drought phase is expected to run through January, and the flood risks follow almost immediately. General Ramanantsoa’s July statements on equipment inventories suggest that preparation work was underway months ago, but the agency has not yet announced a completed readiness framework. For an island facing a potential record El Niño, the effectiveness of those preparations will be measured by whether warnings translate into services that reach the ground on time, from drought response in the South and West to flood and landslide readiness when the rains arrive in February.