On the island of Nosy-Be, where families live from tourism and from the harvests of ylang-ylang and vanilla, the presence of a Russian diplomat this week was more than a protocol visit. Alexeï Buriak came to sign agreements that touch directly on the livelihoods of local producers and the small businesses that depend on visitors. He then travelled on to Bemanevika to attend ceremonies in memory of Russian soldiers who disappeared in conflicts at the beginning of the twentieth century. According to Madagascar-Tribune, the diplomat and his interlocutors also formalised arrangements to maintain the monuments to the dead and the Russian graves on the island, sites that many residents pass every day without always knowing the history they carry.
These meetings are the most visible sign of a broader reality. Madagascar has become a major strategic stake, both military and economic, in the contest for influence between Russia and the United States, and in that contest the emissaries of the East have taken a clear lead over their Western competitors.
The advance was confirmed at the end of October. On 28 and 29 October 2026, on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa summit, Russian ministers and the President of Madagascar ratified cooperation agreements in four areas that reach into daily life across the country: defence, health, education and agriculture. For Malagasy families, these are the sectors that determine whether a child can be treated, schooled or fed, and whether a farmer can sell a harvest. The speed of the rapprochement, illustrated by Buriak’s tour from Nosy-Be to Bemanevika, suggests that this collaboration is moving forward at pace.
By contrast, the United States has not given up on finding common ground, even though it has fallen behind in its diplomatic relations with the leaders of the Refondation of Madagascar. On 3 and 4 November 2026, General John Brennan, the American commander for Africa at AFRICOM, arrived accompanied by Peter Vrooman, a former United States ambassador to Mozambique and Rwanda. Their proposal was aimed at the Malagasy armed forces: cooperation against illicit trafficking and piracy, and support for military training. These are precisely the domains in which agreements have already been signed with Russia, as reported by mcinformactions.net.
Behind the diplomatic comings and goings lie larger questions about who will shape the security and economy of the Big Island, and what that will mean for the people who live there. Fishing communities and coastal traders have an immediate interest in who helps police the waters against piracy and trafficking. Farmers and exporters of vanilla and ylang-ylang have a stake in which partners sign commercial agreements around their crops. The choices made in faraway capitals, in Moscow and in Washington, will land in concrete form on these islands, in the form of training programmes, health cooperation or tourist partnerships.
Meanwhile, an investigation published by RFI on 25 September 2026 helps explain why Madagascar matters so much to Moscow. The enquiry, conducted by the collective Contact All Eyes On Wagner (AEOW), details how, despite the disappearance of the original entity, the broad strategic lines of Russia’s approach are now carried by new services. Madagascar has become the epicentre of the project. The island’s geography does much of the work: positioned close to the African continent, it allows control of the Mozambique Channel and offers a base from which to strengthen economic and military relations with the Comoros, Tanzania and Mozambique. For the populations of that whole maritime region, the channel is not an abstraction; it is the water their boats cross, the route their goods take, and the space in which any naval competition will be felt.
The fuller account of these manoeuvres, including the reporting behind this article, can be read here: https://la1ere.franceinfo.fr/reunion/madagascar-au-c-ur-d-enjeux-militaires-comme-economiques-pour-la-russie-et-les-etats-unis-1754853.html
What emerges from the sequence of events, from the October accords to the American visit of early November, is a country whose ordinary inhabitants, from farmers to fishermen to island communities, are living at the crossroads of a competition that is being decided largely without them, even though its consequences, in schools, clinics, fields and coastal waters, will be theirs to bear. Whether the next agreements will be signed in Moscow or Washington may depend on which partner can first deliver visible change in those everyday places.