New Zealand’s electoral commission will not confirm the official result of Saturday’s general election until 27 November, leaving the formation of the next government in limbo and the country’s political institutions facing an extended period of negotiation over who will hold power. The delay now falls to the commission itself, which must process and count special votes, cast outside a voter’s electorate including overseas, over the next three weeks.
Preliminary results show Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right National Party as the largest bloc in parliament with 42 seats, still 19 short of the simple majority needed to govern. Combined with its coalition partners, ACT and New Zealand First, the right-of-centre grouping would hold a slim lead over the left-leaning bloc, but only if a deal can be reached. Opposition leader Chris Hipkins, whose Labour Party won 36 seats, has shown no sign of conceding, saying the “shape of the next government” will remain unclear “for a while”.
More than 99% of votes have been counted, with National and Labour neck-and-neck in vote share. Professor Andrew Geddis of the University of Otago, an expert in election law, said the outcome could turn on “some very fine vote margins not just between the parties, but in individual electorates”. The accountability question, in other words, now rests with the counting process as much as with the parties themselves.
Under the country’s mixed-member proportional voting system, most governments are coalitions, with each voter casting two choices: one for a constituency representative and one for a political party. The seat projections put the Greens on 16, ACT on 13, New Zealand First on 12, the Opportunity Party on 7 and Te Pāti Māori, which represents Māori interests, on 5.
The Opportunity Party has emerged as a pivotal player, having crossed the 5% parliamentary threshold for the first time. Its leaders said they would negotiate first with the party that secures the most seats, though the party remains open to working with either major bloc. Leader Qiulae Wong told supporters at the party’s watch event: “We believe that we can change the way we do politics to focus on the future, on the next generation, and on finding common ground.” Professor Geddis described the party as “a wildcard player” that could “determine which bloc of parties is able to govern”.
Meanwhile, the two main party leaders have begun positioning for the negotiation phase within their own mandates. Luxon congratulated Hipkins on a “very hard-fought race” before telling party colleagues: “Whatever the final count, we are incredibly proud of each and everyone for you.” He said he would run a caretaker government until final results are confirmed later in the month, adding: “With those final results there can then be meaningful negotiations.” Hipkins, for his part, said “the people have spoken”, before adding: “It may take a bit longer to work out what they’ve said.” He argued the results made clear that the “next parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together and to find a common ground”.
The tight contest followed a campaign dominated by the cost of living and unemployment. Julian McCrann, head of polling at Roy Morgan, told BBC News that the cost of living was the main issue for many New Zealanders, saying: “Three years ago, Luxon came in saying he’d be making New Zealanders’ lives better and solving these economic issues, but he hasn’t really delivered.”
The preliminary results point to historically low support for the two major parties, with a combined vote share of around 60%. The Greens, who have proposed forcing the country’s two main supermarkets to divest stores to create publicly-owned shops, saw their vote rise by a couple of percentage points. An annual social cohesion survey found that more than half the country no longer sees New Zealand as a land of opportunity, and record numbers of Kiwis have been leaving the country, many for Australia.
By the time the commission reports on 27 November, the special votes may have redrawn the seat projections entirely. Whether the next government can command a stable majority, and who will be answerable for it, will only be settled once those votes are counted.